https://arder.ca/blog daily 0.75 2026-04-01 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-snapshot-march-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-04-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/4d918837-540e-492d-b431-0926b540eda1/2026-03+heatmap.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: March 2026 - Heat Map of March 2026 hourly Alberta power pool prices Black: zero dollar hour - “Excess Supply” Light Grey: CAD 0.01 - 20/MWh - “Insufficient” Green: CAD 20.01 - 60/MWh - “Marginal” Cyan: CAD 60.01 - 150/MWh - “Full-cycle” Purple: CAD 150.01 - 800/MWh - “Expensive” Red: CAD 800.01 - 999.99/MWh - “Peak” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/11d74037-af2c-455a-9fae-3e661c54e0ab/2026-03+average+pool+prices.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: March 2026 - March average Alberta electricity pool prices, 2005-2026 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/d0d8339f-af42-4499-9997-da61c0523f3d/2026-03+daily+lowest+cost+8+hrs.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: March 2026 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for March, 2005-2026 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/85840b34-fa00-446d-b07d-e21bc147f49e/2026-03++zero+dollar+hours.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: March 2026 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for March, 2005-2026 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/7664a2ef-995a-4145-a4f3-0bbe5737aa32/arder_market_update_v1_april_2026.png Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: March 2026 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-market-february-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-03-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/4daf1653-3acc-4030-ab02-564638ac9124/2026-02+heatmap.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: February 2026 - Heat Map of February 2026 hourly Alberta power pool prices Black: zero dollar hour - “Excess Supply” Light Grey: CAD 0.01 - 20/MWh - “Insufficient” Green: CAD 20.01 - 60/MWh - “Marginal” Cyan: CAD 60.01 - 150/MWh - “Full-cycle” Purple: CAD 150.01 - 800/MWh - “Expensive” Red: CAD 800.01 - 999.99/MWh - “Peak” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/5572c94e-fe65-4976-a960-8c4805b28aba/2026-02+average+pool+prices.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: February 2026 - February average Alberta electricity pool prices, 2005-2026 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/a8c735fc-f3d4-4b1d-a8d0-db4df7eff21a/2026-02+daily+lowest+cost+8+hrs.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: February 2026 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for February, 2005-2026 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/10530ecd-998e-4a63-b765-668d8a49c744/2026-02++zero+dollar+hours.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: February 2026 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for February, 2005-2026 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/7664a2ef-995a-4145-a4f3-0bbe5737aa32/arder_market_update_v1_april_2026.png Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: February 2026 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-growth monthly 0.5 2026-03-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/917b15f9-7502-4991-96e3-195c9b918160/2005-2025+AIL.jpg Blog - Alberta Power: GROWTH! - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/38d551f7-c0f8-4bb3-a3d8-af987a8989ff/2005-2025+AIL+Growth.jpg Blog - Alberta Power: GROWTH! - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/7bcc3dcd-9c21-48d6-b061-af02be80d625/Screenshot+2026-02-18+235612.png Blog - Alberta Power: GROWTH! - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/2daa7c43-eb80-4312-8f0f-118fc9e8cb4d/Screenshot+2025-12-10+161532.png Blog - Alberta Power: GROWTH! - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/7664a2ef-995a-4145-a4f3-0bbe5737aa32/arder_market_update_v1_april_2026.png Blog - Alberta Power: GROWTH! - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-market-january-2026 monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/446d1c04-9ed4-42ab-9c65-f83da95a6753/2026-01+heatmap.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: January 2026 - Heat Map of January 2026 hourly Alberta power pool prices Black: zero dollar hour - “Excess Supply” Light Grey: CAD 0.01 - 20/MWh - “Insufficient” Green: CAD 20.01 - 60/MWh - “Marginal” Cyan: CAD 60.01 - 150/MWh - “Full-cycle” Purple: CAD 150.01 - 800/MWh - “Expensive” Red: CAD 800.01 - 999.99/MWh - “Peak” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/bac6d7a6-5155-4470-a5bd-46b559da83dc/2026-01+average+pool+prices.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: January 2026 - January average Alberta electricity pool prices, 2005-2026 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/fcd0cd30-dbb6-43eb-a6f4-f0e5af4441d6/2026-01+daily+lowest+cost+8+hrs.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: January 2026 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for January, 2005-2026 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/76ff762c-8cc0-44ad-ad0d-360f6063ce8e/2026-01+january+zero+dollar+hours.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: January 2026 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for January, 2005-2026 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-2025-in-review monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/000df279-4d99-49b0-8e29-cb96970a32d0/2020-25+Bucketed+Heat+Maps.jpg Blog - Alberta Power: 2025 in Review - Make it stand out Alberta Power Market Price Heatmap, 2020-2025. Each main row represents one year, as marked on the right y-label. Each minor row represents one hour of day, starting from midnight on top to hour ending 24 at the bottom, as marked on the left y-label. The main columns represent the month of the year, as marked on the top x-label, and the minor rows the day of the month, as marked on the bottom x-label. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/4bbc6dc8-7d0e-48c2-bbbe-459e45aa6cfa/2005-2025+Annual+cumulative+zero-dollar+hours.jpg Blog - Alberta Power: 2025 in Review - Make it stand out Cumulative annual zero-dollar hours in the Alberta Power Pool from 2005-2025 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/1c70c737-ae35-4761-943c-e6ea78e856a1/2005-2025+Annual+average+pool+price.jpg Blog - Alberta Power: 2025 in Review - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/821e1af0-5ccf-484e-a55d-5eb718175862/2005-2025+Annual+price+of+daily+lowest+cost+8+hours.jpg Blog - Alberta Power: 2025 in Review - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/520ced15-17f7-4a6a-a387-0da0a132d2ae/2025+average+AB+Pool+Price+by+hour.jpg Blog - Alberta Power: 2025 in Review - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-market-snapshot-december-2025 monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/9cb9682f-76e5-4811-a35f-b5450130189e/2025-12+Hourly+Heat+Map.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: December & Q4 2025 - Heat Map of December 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices Black: zero dollar hour - “Excess Supply” Light Grey: CAD 0.01 - 20/MWh - “Insufficient” Green: CAD 20.01 - 60/MWh - “Marginal” Cyan: CAD 60.01 - 150/MWh - “Full-cycle” Purple: CAD 150.01 - 800/MWh - “Expensive” Red: CAD 800.01 - 999.99/MWh - “Peak” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/531e6df9-3539-4c8a-8d4f-4d8519bec4af/2025-12+average+pool+price.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: December & Q4 2025 - December average Alberta electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/edc82f4b-c6f2-4502-9761-900fdf5a847d/2025-Q4+Average+Prices.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: December & Q4 2025 - Q4 average Alberta electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/f4cd088f-2a59-4835-aa24-31feab0600d2/2025-12+Daily+lowest+8.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: December & Q4 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for December, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/824b32e5-1d75-4a88-8381-de62944822d9/2025-Q4+Lowest+Cost+Daily+8.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: December & Q4 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for Q4, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/64e8bba4-d016-4cf9-85b2-8b07a5e4a0b8/2025-12+zero+dollar+hours.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: December & Q4 2025 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for December, 2005-2025 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/5c601422-8ce9-414a-b256-f1a6a0fe848b/2025-Q4+Zero+dollar+hours.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: December & Q4 2025 - Zero-dollar hours for Q4, 2005-2025 https://arder.ca/blog/lng-shutins monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/8e26d21c-43c0-424c-8416-4fbf5317c899/2025-12-08+HH+TTF+spreads.jpg Blog - LNG Shut-ins? Don’t count on it. - HH, TTF Forward Curves and implied (marginal) spreads data as of 08 December 2025, sources: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/dutch-ttf-natural-gas-usd-mmbtu-icis-heren-front-month.settlements.html https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-market-snapshot-november-2025 monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/bc698e75-d365-4f55-8041-054ebf8c3378/2025-11+Heatmap.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: November 2025 - Heat Map of November 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 30th. Colors: Pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/510ba2c8-3648-4762-8ef4-1daeb17e9286/2025-11+Average+pool+price.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: November 2025 - November average Alberta electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/f1f86f7e-4508-436b-acc3-d3e6d50b8bad/2025-11+Lowest+cost+daily+8.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: November 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for November, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/fc86dfc8-61dc-449e-a49e-0d95aa2918dc/2025-11+Zero-dollar+hours.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: November 2025 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for November, 2005-2025 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-market-october-2025 monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/aeb55a51-79b2-4560-94c5-48ff0fce988b/2025-10+October+heat+map.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: October 2025 - Heat Map of October 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 31st. Colors: Pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/b622043d-091d-4f78-a2b6-c9df8c8a294e/2025-10+October+average+price.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: October 2025 - October average Alberta electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/590e834d-d2b5-405e-ad27-01efd07f1d85/2025-10+October+lowest+cost+8+hours.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: October 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for October, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/2f21c91f-63ed-4d58-ac39-cbd063fb13e1/2025-10+October+zero-dollar+hours.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: October 2025 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for October, 2005-2025 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-q3-2025 monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/35f6de81-73e6-4b39-9e39-7848fa74412a/2025-10+Q3+Zero+dollar+hours+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: Q3 2025 - Q3 zero-dollar hours by year, 2005-2025 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/7c435b5c-8c14-427d-87c7-3910dc803444/2025-10+Q3+avg+pool+price+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: Q3 2025 - Q3 average electricity pool prices by year, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/55229295-7e54-4818-8ff0-039dbcaab431/2025-10+Q3+daily+lowest+8+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: Q3 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, Q3 average by year, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://arder.ca/blog/jkm-top3 monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-september-2025 monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/0d027d5e-4402-4799-96d9-8df05b6faf9e/2025-09+September+price+heatmap.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - September 2025 - Heat Map of September 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 30th. Colors: Pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/0fc7460c-ab76-4f81-a86f-23f4389530e7/2025-09+September+avg+2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - September 2025 - September average Alberta electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/bd3ef84c-b38b-44f3-aa55-e39710e6b485/2025-09+September+avg+lowest+daily+8+2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - September 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for September, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/d2cbc404-db9c-4d2b-9b84-d5c1b95a13b6/2025-09+September+zero+dollar+hours+2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - September 2025 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for September, 2005-2025 https://arder.ca/blog/green-giants-podcast monthly 0.5 2025-10-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/3dc07acc-6520-4647-8993-1784d4a442dc/1759153498996.jpg Blog - Podcast - Arder @ “Green Giants” - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://arder.ca/blog/gas-prices-down-power-prices-up monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/5ff3b2bc-75c9-4bdc-969e-3af9b1b3b26b/PowervsGasAlberta2005-2025.jpg Blog - Gas Prices Down, Power Prices Up: The Misunderstood Hedge - AB Gas vs Power prices, 2005-2025 The red line shows the average monthly AECO gas price in CAD/GJ against the left axis, the blue line the average monthly AESO pool price in CAD/MWh against the right axis. The y-axes are aligned with an implied heat rate of 10 GJ/MWh. https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-snapshot-august-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/79ac3ab4-a8e5-4b69-94fa-4649d7ff2e0f/2025-08+Heatmap+August+2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - August 2025 - Heat Map of August 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices. Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 31st. Colors: Hourly pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/de6c18e8-246f-4c6d-8e29-e7ddc3fbc429/2025-08+Average+cost+August+2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - August 2025 - August average Alberta electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/9337f48e-ceb9-4d75-814a-a606d0709d25/2025-08+Lowest+cost+8+August+2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - August 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for August, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/62ce0f3a-5707-42ef-91fe-bf0fbb57d0db/2025-08+zero-dollar+hours+August+2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - August 2025 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for August, 2005-2025 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-snapshot-july-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/9d9f6628-93cc-49f4-a819-335dddc9735d/2025-07+Heatmap+July+2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - July 2025 - Heat Map of July 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices. Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 31st. Colors: Hourly pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/52c885b6-c0fc-4fb4-a1f5-48559c7e8871/2025-07+Average+cost+July+2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - July 2025 - July average electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/1fa0311e-2515-405a-9541-d01ea41cc118/2025-07+Lowest+cost+8+July+2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - July 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for July, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/ffeec58d-aa59-4223-95da-72815ab6cd4f/2025-07+zero-dollar+hours+July+2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - July 2025 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for July, 2005-2025 https://arder.ca/blog/lng-overhyped-undervalued-part-3 monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/03759574-b75f-4f31-8bfa-429f9b59cf0c/JKM+Price+History+2015-06-2025-05.jpg Blog - LNG - Overhyped, Undervalued - or Misunderstood? Part 3 - Market Dynamics - Make it stand out Monthly JKM prices, June 2015 to May 2025, in USD/MMBtu https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/8293a0de-4e3d-465a-91d3-a1a777d4134e/JKM+Price+Histogram+2015-06-2025-05.jpg Blog - LNG - Overhyped, Undervalued - or Misunderstood? Part 3 - Market Dynamics - Make it stand out Histogram of Monthly JKM prices, June 2015 to May 2025 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/eabc1eb6-6037-4d48-8710-db8a3118bdc4/JKM+hypothetical+netback+chart.jpg Blog - LNG - Overhyped, Undervalued - or Misunderstood? Part 3 - Market Dynamics - Make it stand out Hypothetical monthly and cumulative netbacks for 135 MMcf/d sold against monthly JKM index prices with USD 9/MMBtu delivered cost https://arder.ca/blog/lng-overhyped-part-2 monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://arder.ca/blog/lng-overhyped-part1 monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-q2-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/a06d00f5-0df2-4aad-b4f7-a535ae6c74b1/2025-07-10+Cumulative+Zero-dollar+Hours+to+June+2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: Q2 2025 - Cumulative Zero-Dollar Hours Cumulative Zero-dollar hours in the Alberta Power Pool, by Year, January 2005 to June 2025 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/4148da1b-5ce5-4a35-9a79-57784775b5b3/2025-07+Q2+Zero+dollar+hours+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: Q2 2025 - Q2 zero-dollar hours by year, 2005-2025 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/6904308e-3f06-4a58-ac8b-0b73afcb7eea/2025-07+Q2+avg+pool+price+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: Q2 2025 - Q2 average electricity pool prices by year, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/0969ad26-1095-4f9f-8047-e8d832f9b0e0/2025-07+Q2+daily+lowest+8+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Market Snapshot: Q2 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, Q2 average by year, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-snapshot-june-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/ebfce776-c825-4ba2-8d2d-cf7e3009194e/2025-06+Heatmap+June+2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - June 2025 - Heat Map of June 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices. Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 30th. Colors: Hourly pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/c59b0bed-9378-421d-a23d-0c0c776897e7/2025-06+Average+cost+June+2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - June 2025 - June average electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/c5759c1b-d6a5-429a-b70f-002919aa0a87/2025-06+Lowest+cost+8+June+2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - June 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for June, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/97eb39d4-bcec-4314-8877-b45551f452b3/2025-06+zero-dollar+hours+June+2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - June 2025 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for June, 2005-2025 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-snapshot-may-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-10-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/804d8810-8d59-4bca-81f3-fd4f97ad8615/2025-05+Heatmap+May+2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - May 2025 - Heat Map of May 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices. Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 31st. Colors: Hourly pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/a47bcec3-976b-4cb1-a0fc-e2953314710a/2025-05+Average+cost+May++2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - May 2025 - May average electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/898c4874-8ac4-4993-99b4-d928e39b7060/2025-05+Lowest+cost+8+May++2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - May 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for May, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/5e4dd767-3096-4510-9bfa-20ade80931c6/2025-05+zero-dollar+hours+May++2005-25.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - May 2025 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for May, 2005-2025 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-snapshot-april-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-05-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/6a3e5880-4d40-4d7c-a2fb-651719692141/2025-04+Heatmap+bucketed+April+2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - April 2025 - Heat Map of April 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices. Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 30th. Colors: Hourly pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/421f333b-fc38-4a37-a071-e219df0bf98e/2025-04+April+Monthly+avg+pool+price+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - April 2025 - April average electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/98707b82-4f13-4b48-bb42-8e84f2c9c0cb/2025-04+April+lowest+8+avg+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - April 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for April, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/d4b2c41c-1279-404c-aaed-4731c8def15f/2025-04+April+zero+dollar+hours+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - April 2025 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for April, 2005-2025 https://arder.ca/blog/billion-dollar-question monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-q1-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/f476e573-1ccd-4997-8ef1-9345be064d72/2025-03+Heatmap+bucketed+March+2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - March & Q1 2025 - Heat Map of March 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices. Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 28th. Colors: Hourly pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/85e6e0b8-7999-41c2-92ee-43c93c0e2974/2025-03+March+Monthly+avg+pool+price+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - March & Q1 2025 - March average electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/eed8898f-a977-4136-be79-93fab5d2cb0b/2025-03+March+lowest+8+avg+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - March & Q1 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for March, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/f0bfad53-0eee-49e6-8f4d-8bfacc93b293/2025-03+March+zero+dollar+hours+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - March & Q1 2025 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for March, 2005-2025 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/48b18113-713f-4281-a9d9-73ba1ef8ae35/2025-03+Q1+avg+pool+price+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - March & Q1 2025 - Q1 average electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/a33bb6b1-82b1-460f-8098-2a6618c7bb46/2025-03+Q1+daily+lowest+8+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - March & Q1 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for Q1, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/2cfbffef-5ca8-4080-9b45-35e4b8d10a4a/2025-03+Q1+Zero+dollar+hours+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - March & Q1 2025 - Quarterly zero-dollar hours, Q1 2005-2025 https://arder.ca/blog/lng-demand-supply monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-february-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/4388bfe4-bd04-4524-85ca-d9ba47071f03/2025-02+February+heat+map+8+buckets.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - February 2025 - Heat Map of February 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices. Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 28th. Colors: Hourly pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/bc92e28e-0539-427e-986c-ce2994defe04/2025-02+February+average+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - February 2025 - February average electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/8daf27ff-32c1-4b94-a08f-b29ae24e9c62/2025-02+February+lowest+8+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - February 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for February, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/c3e1f8ee-1b2d-49a3-8503-b93f876f69ca/2025-02+February+zero-dollar+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - February 2025 - Monthly zero-dollar hours for February, 2005-2025 https://arder.ca/blog/the-deal-mapper monthly 0.5 2025-02-10 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-january-2025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/2c730089-2861-43d9-a37c-dee3467edba6/2025-01+Heatmap+bucketed+January+2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - January 2025 - Heat Map of January 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 30th. Colors: Hourly pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/5ec07085-9d0c-434c-8863-868474744756/2025-01+Average+January+Pool+Price+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - January 2025 - January average electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/1c47f882-5c61-46e2-954b-88cea8ff004d/2025-01+January+lowest+8+2005-2025.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - January 2025 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for January, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-2024 monthly 0.5 2025-04-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/a7f4786b-1287-4a14-b12d-abb519cc5ca1/2025-01+Annual+zero-dollar+hours+since+2005.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: 2024 in Review Annual number of zero-dollar hourly prices in the Alberta electricity pool https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/96121b36-411e-4be5-8545-f85b44b52918/2025-01+Heatmap+2024+continuous+scale.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: 2024 in Review The above heat map shows the months of 2024 across the top (Jan - Dec), the day of each month across the bottom, and the time of day along the left side. The purple / darker colours represent less expensive / normal power pricing, sliding up to the golden / yellow colours to reflect expensive times. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/9801595a-c2d9-4eb7-ba27-02236692e65f/2025-01+Heatmap+2024+eight+buckets.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: 2024 in Review This heat map again shows the months of 2024 across the top (Jan - Dec), the day of each month across the bottom, and the time of day along the left side. This time, the color scale is not continuous but discrete: black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/8475c9c2-2ac9-452e-8472-f99418126edf/2025-01+Heatmap+2024+whiteout+buckets.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: 2024 in Review This heat map again shows the months of 2024 across the top (Jan - Dec), the day of each month across the bottom, and the time of day along the left side. This time, the discrete color scale is trunkated: black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), any prices above CAD 50/MWh: “white” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/77bc24db-5a81-40a4-9ea9-bd155b35db06/2025-01+Heatmap+bucketed+monthly+since+2005.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: 2024 in Review Price Heat Map of hourly Alberta electricity pool prices grouped by month on a discrete scale: black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/d34b027d-0e1e-4e3c-85bc-3e2240d8d84f/2025-01+Heatmap+bucketed+monthly+since+2005+whiteout.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: 2024 in Review Price Heat Map of hourly Alberta electricity pool prices grouped by month on a discrete scale, trunkated at CAD 50/MWh: black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), any prices above CAD 50/MWh: “white” https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/c28706d7-1e33-4577-b7c6-b918df8edaa2/2025-01+Annual+avg+since+2005.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: 2024 in Review Average annual Alberta electricity pool prices, 5005-2024 (CAD/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/6e090e3e-f55d-4da3-8cbd-f5f66af077e5/2025-01+Annual+avg+highest+16+lowest+8+since+2005.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: 2024 in Review Alberta electricity pool prices 2005-2024 (CAD/MWh): Annual average: “blue” Annual average of daily lowest-cost 8 hours: “green” Annual average of daily highest-cost 16 hours: “red” https://arder.ca/blog/escaping-the-echo-chamber-2024-edition monthly 0.5 2024-12-24 https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-structural-change monthly 0.5 2025-04-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/b6cb567f-0b51-44ed-b233-6436e1a016b3/Screenshot+2024-12-10+171956.png Blog - Alberta-Power: The Change is Structural, not Cyclical! - Alberta Electricity Generating Assets, Nameplate Capacity (MW) Existing generation mix as of November 2024 (left), adding assets under construction (center), and adding assets with approval by the Alberta Utility Commission, AUC (right). Data per AESO Long-Term Adequacy Report, November 2024 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/fe9c0842-5f1a-427e-b068-316abc96ae99/2024-11+ISD+timeline+under+construction+generation.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: The Change is Structural, not Cyclical! - Alberta Electricity Generation Projects under Construction Nameplate capacity of assets under construction by expected In-Service Date (ISD). Note that usually, commissioning and ramp up take several months following ISD. For example, one 403 MW Cogen unit at Suncor’s Base plant was already counted as in service by AESO, but as of early December 2024 is still operating at around half of its nameplate capacity (see Dispatcho for more details). Data per AESO Long-Term Adequacy Report, November 2024 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/c9e4a8c5-15b3-44e2-82af-2c270cba6190/Screenshot+2024-12-10+171942.png Blog - Alberta-Power: The Change is Structural, not Cyclical! - Make it stand out Supply and Demand Scenarios for Alberta Internal Load (AIL) and Generating assets operating and under construction as of November 2024. Data per AESO Long-Term Adequacy Report, November 2024. See article for a more detailed description of scenarios. https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-snapshot-november-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-12-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/10a1c7ee-3a1f-4873-a740-ea18081e1eae/2024-11+Heatmap+detailed+bins+corrected.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - November 2024 - Heat Map of November 2024 hourly Alberta power pool prices. Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 30th. Colors: Hourly pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh) red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh) maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/fe68abef-d91b-49be-a483-25126605f5a3/2024-11+November+average+price+05-24.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - November 2024 - November average electricity pool prices, 2005-2024 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/cfeb2e87-82b4-4e4c-95d7-3704cbb23bcd/2024-11+November+lowest+8+price+05-24.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - November 2024 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for November, 2005-2024 (CAD/MWh) Prices are not inflation-adjusted. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/02bde1af-d3c4-4c3b-8662-1f27e2123e45/2024-11+November+zero-dollar+hours+05-24.jpg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - November 2024 - Zero-dollar hours in November, 2005-2024 Again not a data error - there were indeed no zero-dollar hours in November from 2005-2022, and only one in 2023, vs. 25 in 2024! https://arder.ca/blog/questions-october-alberta-power monthly 0.5 2024-11-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/c50d0fc2-c295-4674-8c0a-5f53d463ad72/2024-10+Heatmap+xtra+bins.jpeg Blog - Q&A: Alberta Power - October Snapshot - Heatmap of October 2024 Alberta electricity pool hourly prices (CAD/MWh) Compared to the heat map shown in our October 2024 Snapshot article, this heat map further splits the most expensive bin into three: orange (CAD 100-300/MWh), red (CAD 300-500/MWh), maroon (CAD 500-1,000/MWh). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/d21a9bfb-0b45-4d71-85e4-fa63b2a92ff4/2024-10+Heatmap+xtra+bins+wider+0-1.jpeg Blog - Q&A: Alberta Power - October Snapshot - Heatmap of October 2024 Alberta electricity pool hourly prices (CAD/MWh) Compared to the heat map shown above, this heat map redefines the “black” zone by including hourly prices up to CAD 1/MWh. You will note the increase from 61 to 75 hours in the “black” zone. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/5a5fc8e0-8279-4864-8e83-4a6f9d6e3fe7/Screenshot+2024-11-19+192025.png Blog - Q&A: Alberta Power - October Snapshot - Alberta nameplate capacity of existing generation plus generation under construction, as of November 2024 (source: lar (see AESO Long Term Adequacy report, Nov 2024) Please note that this picture depicts nameplate capacity, i.e. it implies that all generation is running at 100% of capacity. This is clearly unrealistic. But the point is not an “average” situation, but one “when the wind blows and the sun shines”, which can get close to nameplate capacity for these renewable assets. In an upcoming article, we will examine a number of scenarios more closely, including a “Dunkelflaute” bookend. https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-snapshot-october-2024 monthly 0.5 2024-11-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/65ab4f9d-2006-4a59-8292-4f919d34faee/2024-10+zero+dollar+hours.jpeg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - October 2024 - Zero-dollar hours in October, 2005-2024 Not a data error - there were indeed no zero-dollar hours in October in 17 out of 20 years from 2005-2024! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/20063d37-df2f-4469-bad7-49668733d136/2024-10+Heat+Map.jpeg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - October 2024 - Heat Map of October 2024 hourly Alberta power pool prices. Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom. Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 31st. Colors: Hourly pool price, with each block representing one hour black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh); grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh), light blue - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh), dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh), yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh), red - “very expensive” (CAD 100+/MWh) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/46cf34ff-b84e-4288-9c9f-3816eede268b/2024-10+daily+lowest+cost+8+hours.jpeg Blog - Alberta Power Snapshot - October 2024 - Daily lowest-cost 8 hours in October, 2005-2024 (CAD/MWh) Prices are NOT inflation-adjusted - if they were, the 2024 record low level would be even more pronounced. https://arder.ca/blog/a-level-playing-field-saves-taxpayer-money monthly 0.5 2024-11-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/9b15da51-06b3-488c-a5b7-02f6ee266cc0/ITC+per+MWh+of+heat+output+in+CAD_MWh%28th%29.png Blog - A level playing field saves taxpayer money! - We have calculated that per unit of heat output, extending the 30% ITC to ETES would be about half as expensive as existing ITCs for blue hydrogen and gas + CCS, and over 86% cheaper than the ITC for green hydrogen. https://arder.ca/blog/regime-change monthly 0.5 2024-11-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/5ad9e993-21cc-4011-8b01-0cbac22cae33/Q3+average+by+month.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: Regime Change! - The average quarterly pool price was down to CAD 55/MWh, down from CAD 160/MWh just one year ago, in line with long-term averages. It’s a “back to normal” story for average prices. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/f6f1a6d5-255d-4673-8ea0-55fec515aa9d/Q3+lowest+8+by+month.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: Regime Change! - Looking at the daily average lowest cost 8 hours though, things start to get a lot more interesting. July and August were relatively low, but September, at just over CAD 6/MWh, was the lowest on record since at least 2005. This means that a dispatchable load that can pick the cheapest 8 hours of each day would have paid CAD 6/MWh on average during the month of September, and just CAD 14/MWh on average throughout Q3. Thus whilst averages look “normal” again, we can see that big changes happened on the low-end of the range. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/af67b5dc-5c58-4a22-b501-f3d4ab7e42ad/Q3+zero-dollar+hours.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: Regime Change! - And this was primarily driven by zero-dollar and near-zero prices: As indicated in the intro, zero-dollar prices reached record levels, with power being “free” for 159 hours in Q3 - the chart really speaks for itself! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/08ef8521-c65d-4270-9d8e-db6054c3bc98/Q3+heatmap.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: Regime Change! - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/fede4652-5733-47d2-bbfe-ddd19b69c1e4/Q3+Heatmap+bucketed.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: Regime Change! - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-faster-than-expected-change monthly 0.5 2024-11-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/6835bada-4c06-48fc-91a8-78be4f150f95/Q2+Average+Price.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: Faster-than-expected change - The average quarterly pool price was down to CAD 45/MWh, down from CAD 160/MWh just one year ago, back in line with long-term averages. And for June, it was down to CAD 32/MWh, the third-lowest in 20 years (after 2016 and 2017). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/5a3a72ca-dffb-42fa-9aab-1c59eff2772e/Q2+Lowest+Cost.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: Faster-than-expected change - The average pool price for the daily lowest-cost 8 hours fell under CAD 20/MWh for the quarter, and to just CAD 14/MWh in June. As this is the amount of time it takes to charge a heat battery, this metric drives the (huge) opportunity for ETES technology. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/986d358a-dada-4176-96d1-53196655ab9d/Q2+Zero+Dollars.jpg Blog - Alberta-Power: Faster-than-expected change - A new record number of zero-dollar hourly pool prices for the the quarter as a whole (67) and each of the months (April - 8; May - 20; June - 39). The previous record for Q2 was 2017 with 41 zero-dollar hours, now beaten by 63%. As the current price floor is zero dollars in the Alberta market, zero-dollar hours are an indication of up to how many hours could have been negative without the floor in place. https://arder.ca/blog/jkm-not-a-get-rich-quick-scheme monthly 0.5 2025-01-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/bf068357-44d6-4907-bf37-1b217b8bcc3f/Monthly+Average+JKM+prices+%28JKMc1%29+-+USD_MMBtu.png Blog - Canadian gas to JKM - Buckle up! - In energy terms, six MMBtu are roughly equivalent to one bbl of crude oil - thus the spikes approach the equivalent of USD 300/bbl for oil. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/969b6d64-1a4b-4e89-9875-24f9d38e7d29/JKM+Netback+Scenarios+%28USD_MMBtu%29+%281%29.png Blog - Canadian gas to JKM - Buckle up! - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/37c293b2-addb-479a-b5af-58febd91f089/Cumulative+Netbacks+since+2016-02.png Blog - Canadian gas to JKM - Buckle up! - Note that our hypothetical netbacks were all cumulatively negative until around the start of 2022 - but then very positive for the following two years. The last time JKM rallied in a similar fashion (albeit with lower absolute price levels) was after the Fukushima incident in 2011, when Japan’s temporary shutdown of nuclear power plants created a demand surge for LNG. [Units removed from the illustration, as they are not intuitive and easily misleading.] https://arder.ca/blog/emissions-free-steam-keeping-it-simple monthly 0.5 2024-11-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/063e9b97-6e30-497d-b61a-4d64ed76f085/Rondo+HB.png Blog - Emissions-free steam: Keeping it simple - Make it stand out Rondo’s Heat Battery (rondo.com) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/f6027f57-fcac-4f3a-af1e-1c26e925762f/AB+Power+Generation+Nameplate+Capacity+Mix+%28MW%29.png Blog - Emissions-free steam: Keeping it simple - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/f6dd6c2b-1872-483f-b4b8-f9de5fb09ad7/RHB.jpeg Blog - Emissions-free steam: Keeping it simple - Rondo’s operational heat battery pilot at the Calgren Ethanol plant in Pixley, California (rondo.com) Rondo’s operational heat battery pilot at the Calgren Ethanol plant in Pixley, California https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/c16dadae-b100-4eed-9242-3db95886f09d/PepsiCo-Eneco_Speicher.png Blog - Emissions-free steam: Keeping it simple - Kraftblock’s system at PepsiCo Broek op Langedijk, Netherlands (Kraftblock’s ETES unit inside the small building in the left corner, providing heat to the PepsiCo factory on the right; kraftblock.de) Kraft https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-part-3-opportunities monthly 0.5 2024-10-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/7d6f4f6d-ef09-40e7-8662-40027b9fc476/Plot2a.jpeg Blog - Alberta-Power, Part 3: Opportunities - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-part-2-averages-and-tails monthly 0.5 2024-04-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/c7a2ae5e-6da4-4f6f-adba-8b551a72d861/Plot8.jpeg Blog - Alberta-Power, Part 2: Averages, Tails and the Future - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/e135309f-79a6-4f9e-bacf-7bb95f559ded/plot9.jpeg Blog - Alberta-Power, Part 2: Averages, Tails and the Future - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/d96ea8e0-2da6-40ff-aacb-db06b521ed6c/Plot4b.jpeg Blog - Alberta-Power, Part 2: Averages, Tails and the Future - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/73255ea7-641d-41e8-aa60-f9434f675d60/Plot2a.jpeg Blog - Alberta-Power, Part 2: Averages, Tails and the Future - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/7562d002-2c50-44f2-850a-048468340f90/Screenshot+2024-03-14+091750.png Blog - Alberta-Power, Part 2: Averages, Tails and the Future - Make it stand out Excerpt from the AESO February 2024 Long Term Adequacy Report https://arder.ca/blog/alberta-power-part-1-a-new-paradigm monthly 0.5 2024-10-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/5e574e10-457f-4889-93b4-60cd6e05629a/Plot8.jpeg Blog - Alberta-Power, Part 1: A New Paradigm - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/1c775157-776f-40d8-ad99-a2b5a689fe8d/AB+Power+Generation+Nameplate+Capacity+Mix+%28MW%29.png Blog - Alberta-Power, Part 1: A New Paradigm - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/8b5c6747-85a5-47f5-88ed-e6eb6f68c8c7/Screenshot+2024-03-13+120643.png Blog - Alberta-Power, Part 1: A New Paradigm - Make it stand out Excerpt from the AESO’s February 2024 Long-term adequacy metrics report. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/1ff93a9f-6260-4496-a53e-56d6a5ae3ddb/Screenshot+2024-03-14+084913.png Blog - Alberta-Power, Part 1: A New Paradigm - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://arder.ca/blog/a-roaring-dragon monthly 0.5 2024-10-01 https://arder.ca/blog/us-lng-export-licenses monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://arder.ca/blog/escape-from-echo-chamber monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://arder.ca/blog/lng-market-growth monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://arder.ca/blog/predictions-are-hard monthly 0.5 2024-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/d73145b3-9d8e-4c1e-a2ac-ca7dd72da228/chart+%282%29.png Blog - Predictions are Hard, Particularly about the Future - Make it stand out WEO Scenarios indexed to Actual (see footnotes for details) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/22b944ab-a356-488b-8d84-db8993904fbe/chart+%281%29.png Blog - Predictions are Hard, Particularly about the Future - Make it stand out WEO Scenarios indexed to Actual (see footnotes for details) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/64f9f80cba120019c3cd7a1f/245b2276-3e91-4908-bd5a-93c0d37f5490/Screenshot+2023-11-17+101541.png Blog - Predictions are Hard, Particularly about the Future - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://arder.ca/blog/another-boom-the-impact-of-lng-exports-on-domestic-gas-prices monthly 0.5 2024-04-30 https://arder.ca/blog/will-canadian-lng-move-markets monthly 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