LNG market growth - a perspective
The LNG market’s robust growth tends to be over-attributed to recent geopolitical events. Examining a few key benchmarks shows the bigger picture - LNG is still relatively small when compared to global gas and coal markets, and even small amounts of substitution lead to strong growth.
Global coal consumption is ~17% larger than global gas consumption.
China’s coal consumption is about 4 times the size of the global LNG market.
Europe’s coal consumption is almost 7 times annual LNG market growth.
LNG represents only about 15% of global gas consumption.
The ~7% annual LNG market growth represents less than 1% of global gas consumption.
LNG’s key attributes - more flexible than pipeline gas, cleaner than coal, enabling dispatchable power solutions through the energy transition - make it attractive despite usually higher cost than coal or pipeline gas.
Sources
Note: slight differences in base years driven by availability of reliable data; impact on conclusions should be immaterial.
Conversion factors: BP Statistical Review of World Energy https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-approximate-conversion-factors.pdf
LNG Market Size and Growth: EIA, November 6, 2023
https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/naturalgas/
Global Energy consumption: EIA World Energy Outlook 2023
China, Europe coal consumption: EIA China / Europe Data Explorer
https://www.iea.org/countries/china, https://www.iea.org/regions/europe
Arder Energy | LNG Advisory
Arder Energy was built on LNG experience, and we continue to offer targeted consulting to investors, project developers, and gas suppliers alongside our core power focus. Our team brings decades of front-line deal delivery, governance, and value chain experience across major global projects. In Canada, our value lies in real-world transaction delivery rather than theoretical modeling. For specialized queries beyond our direct expertise, we connect clients with proven specialists across our broader gas market network. Contact our team to learn more.