Alberta Power Market Snapshot: October 2025
"A loss of 95% is a two-step process: first 90% down, then another 50% of what was left." This concept of compounding extremes illustrates the drama now unfolding in the Alberta power market. October delivered yet another, more extreme set of records compared to prior months. For large industrial power consumers, being proactive and data-driven is becoming more profitable than ever. Our focus here is to move beyond the commentary. It's time to let the data speak for itself.
[This article is not financial or investment advice, but provided for general information purposes only. All information is subject to change and should not be relied upon for any decision making. Copyright Arder Energy™ 2025. All rights reserved. See Webpage Terms of Use.]
The Data
We will start with our usual big-picture view, the heat map of hourly pool prices:
Heat Map of October 2025 hourly Alberta power pool prices
Vertical axis: hour of the day, from hour 0 on top to hour 24 at the bottom.
Horizontal axis: day of the month, from 1st to 31st.
Colors: Pool price, with each block representing one hour
black - “zero-dollar” (CAD 0/MWh);
grey - “ultra cheap” (CAD 0.01-30/MWh),
light green - “cheap” (CAD 30-50/MWh),
dark blue - “normal” (CAD 50-70/MWh),
yellow - “expensive” (CAD 70-100/MWh),
orange - “very expensive” (CAD 100-300/MWh)
red - “extremely expensive” (CAD 300-500/MWh)
maroon - “peak prices” (CAD 500-1,000/MWh)
Despite generally slightly above-normal temperatures, October was structurally poised to be a "normal" shoulder month, implying ample supply and predictable intraday demand patterns. And at first glance, that’s what we seem to see in the heat map - higher prices concentrated around the morning and evening peak demand hours, and extremely low or even zero dollar prices over night - but increasingly also during sunny (and windy) afternoons.
Grid congestion led to a significant episode of “out of merit” dispatch however: on October 29th, there was significant Excess Supply, but congestion meant that not all of this power was able to reach demand centers. As a result, the AESO directed long lead time thermal assets start up to maintain an adequate “Supply Cushion”. Those assets were compensated with an “out of merit” price while the pool price stayed at zero. Locational Marginal Pricing, which will introduce hundreds of pricing “nodes” throughout the province, will be introduced with the Restructured Energy Market from 2027, leading to much more dynamic and location-specific pricing that will make such congestion more visible.
But back to the data.
The blend of hourly prices resulted in a relatively low average monthly pool price of CAD 32.88/MWh, the sixth-lowest since 2005 – nothing too special.
October average Alberta electricity pool prices, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh)
Prices are not inflation-adjusted
But as we keep highlighting, averages are often deceiving.
A telling metric, and a useful proxy for the value available to flexible loads, is the average of the lowest-cost daily 8 hours. This figure collapsed to just CAD 7.36/MWh—which equates to less than one cent per kilowatt-hour. This is not only the lowest price recorded in at least two decades, but it sits an astonishing 44% below the previous record set just last year.
Daily lowest-cost 8 hours, average for October, 2005-2025 (CAD/MWh)
Prices are not inflation-adjusted
Monthly zero-dollar hours set yet another record, climbing to 129 hours. This figure is more than double the previous monthly record of 61 hours set just last year. Consequently, over 17% of all operating hours in October 2025 were priced at zero:
Monthly zero-dollar hours for October, 2005-2025
Takeaways
This data confirms what's increasingly clear: structural change is reshaping the Alberta power market. And the deepest regulatory changes since market liberalization in 2001 are coming soon.The message to power consumers is clear: "Set and forget" strategies are a high-cost gamble. To manage costs effectively, a proactive strategy is no longer optional—it's essential.
Training Opportunity
Want to learn more? Our Alberta Power Fundamentals training, scheduled for January 29th, will equip you with the essential market understanding and strategies required to ensure your business remains competitive and resilient. Conducted in an interactive setting in Calgary, we are expecting a sold-out event again, thus don’t delay signing up. We look forward to having you on board!